How Important is the Credibility Problem in Politics? Evidence from State-Level Abortion Legislation
This paper proposes a simple mechanism for evaluating the relevance of credibility problems in politics. If candidates are capable of making credible policy promises, we will not expect them to systematically adopt platforms that entail large probabilities of losing an election. This is because the adoption of very extreme platforms has the effect of shifting expected policies systematically away from their ideal points. For candidates who lack the capacity of making credible commitments, in contrast, policy platforms are simply a reflection of their preferences, which may well be very extreme. I show that this fact implies that when politicians are credible the correlation between candidates preferences and expected policies will always be positive, whereas when they lack credibility the correlation can be negative. Empirical tests on a panel of US abortion preferences and legislation show that the correlation between the preferences of party constituents and enacted policies is consistently negative, a result that strongly suggests the existence of significant credibility problems.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PAC 123, 238 Church Street, Middletown, CT 06459-0007|
Web page: http://www.wesleyan.edu/econ/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tim Besley & Stephen Coate, .
"An Economic Model of Representative Democracy,"
Penn CARESS Working Papers
ecf70d639d700dba5327ab0c8, Penn Economics Department.
- David S. Lee & Enrico Moretti & Matthew J. Butler, 2004. "Do Voters Affect or Elect Policies? Evidence from the U. S. House," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 807-859.
- Martin J. Osborne & Al Slivinski, 1996.
"A Model of Political Competition with Citizen-Candidates,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 65-96.
- Martin J. Osborne & Al Slivinksi, 1995. "A Model of Political Competition with Citizen-Candidates," Department of Economics Working Papers 1995-01, McMaster University.
- Esther Duflo & Raghabendra Chattopadhyay, 2004.
"Women as policy makers: Evidence from a randomized policy experiment in india,"
Framed Field Experiments
00224, The Field Experiments Website.
- Raghabendra Chattopadhyay & Esther Duflo, 2004. "Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1409-1443, 09.
- Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2006-014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Manolis Kaparakis)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.