The Bulgarian Foreign and Domestic Debt ??? A No-Arbitrage Macrofinancial View
Bulgaria started the transition in the early 90???s with a sovereign default and debt restructuring. Later on, under a strict fiscal discipline, the country succeeded to reduce significantly its debt burden and is currently among the top EU performers in that respect. The current debt outstanding is composed mainly of local currency treasuries issued on the domestic market as well as Eurobonds and Global bonds on the international one. These instruments give rise to two risky spreads - credit and currency. The Currency Board Arrangement and the fixed exchange rate regime the country follows prevent from a discretionary monetary policy and this gives relative stability to the bonds??? yields and the risky spreads. Their financial role starts dominating over any macroeconomic one making them a natural object for investigation with financial engineering tools. The main focus of the paper is an analysis of the informational content of the risky spreads in a multifaceted way from noarbitrage,financial, and macroeconomic points of view.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109|
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763-5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000.
"Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1997. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 6128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1998. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-083, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
- Boril Šopov & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Yield Curve Dynamics - Regional Common Factor Model," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(2), pages 140-156.
- Boril Šopov & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Yield Curve Dynamics: Regional Common Factor Model," Working Papers IES 2010/17, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2010.
- Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
- Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
- Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Irina Mihai & Florian Neagu, 2011. "CDS and government bond spreads - how informative are they for financial stability analysis?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 415-429 Bank for International Settlements.
- Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos & Anita Tuladhar, 2010. "Yield Curve Dynamics and Spillovers in Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/51, .
- Arnaud Mehl, 2009. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 683-716, November.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 0691, European Central Bank.
- Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Saa-Requejo, Jesus & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 1997. "Bond Pricing with Default Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3w71g2ch, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Hsu, Jason C. & Saa-Requejo, Jesus & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2003. "Bond Pricing with Default Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5bb1j39q, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Anderson, Bing & Hammond, Peter J. & Ramezani, Cyrus A., 2010. "Affine Models of the Joint Dynamics of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(05), pages 1341-1365, October.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe : gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Hans Dewachter & Konstantijn Maes, 2001. "An Affine Model for International Bond Markets," International Economics Working Papers Series ces0106, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
- Hans DEWACHTER & Konstantijn MAES, 2001. "An Affine Model for International Bond Markets," Working Papers Department of Economics ces0106, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
- Björk, T. & Kabanov, Y. & Runggaldier, W., 1995. "Bond markets where prices are driven by a general marked point process," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 88, Stockholm School of Economics. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2012-1032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WDI)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.