Impact of Derivatives Trading on Emerging Capital Markets: A Note on Expiration Day Effects in India
The impact of expiration of derivatives contracts on the underlying cash market – on trading volumes, returns and volatility of returns – has been studied in various contexts. We use an AR-GARCH model to analyse the impact of expiration of derivatives contracts on the cash market at the largest stock exchange in India, an important emerging capital market. Our results indicate that trading volumes were significantly higher on expiration days and during the five days leading up to expiration days (“expiration weeks”), compared with nonexpiration days (weeks). We also find significant expiration day effects on daily returns to the market index, and on the volatility of these returns. Finally, our analysis indicates that it might be prudent to undertake analysis of expiration day effects (or other events) using methodologies that model the underlying data generating process, rather than depend on comparison of mean and median alone.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763-5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May.
- Per Alkeback & Niclas Hagelin, 2004. "Expiration day effects of index futures and options: evidence from a market with a long settlement period," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 385-396.
- Christian Schlag, 1996. "Expiration day effects of stock index derivatives in Germany," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(1), pages 69-95.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2007-863. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laurie Gendron)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.