Determinants of Bulgarian Brady bond prices - an empirical assessment
To analyze the main determinants of secondary market prices of Bulgarian Brady Bonds, the authors investigate to what extent fluctuations in domestic fundamentals affect the bonds'secondary market price. They also assess the extent to which external shocks affect the bonds'prices. They estimate the long-term relationship between domestic fundamentals and market prices of bonds, using co-integration techniques. In the long-run, they find that gross foreign reserves and exports had a positive effect on bond prices and the real exchange rate and Mexico's nominal exchange rate depreciation had a negative effect. In the short run, the Asian crisis had a negative impact, and Bulgaria's change in political regime and introduction of a currency board had a positive impact. Mexico's economic crisis in 1995 had contagion effects. The authors'empirical results confirm the view that the so-called fundamentals approach should be used to supplement the analysis of spillover effects for Bulgaria Brady bonds.
|Date of creation:||31 Jan 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eaton, Jonathan, 1990. "Debt Relief and the International Enforcement of Loan Contracts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 43-56, Winter.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,"
3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barbone, Luca & Forni, Lorenzo, 1997. "Are markets learning? : behavior in the secondary market for Brady bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1734, The World Bank.
- Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.