A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Economic Development and Migration

This descriptive paper provides a nuanced perspective on the relationship between developmentand migration, extending the non-parametric analysis in Clemens (2020). A few stylized patterns of migration emerge as countries develop. First, the migration response todevelopment differs by the types of origin and destination countries. As low-income countries develop, their migrationto high-income destinations increases slowly but steadily, whereas migration to other low-income or neighboringcountries decreases at early levels of development. As middle-income countries develop, their migration tohigh-income countries increases steadily and plateaus once they reach sufficiently high levels of income. Second, thecomposition of migrants changes as countries develop. In particular, migrants to high-income destination countriesbecome more educated. Third, the emigration response from middle-income countries is muted for countries with largerpopulations, particularly toward high-income destinations. These patterns suggest a strong role multipletransformations—such as increasing incomes, increased global integration, a demographic transition, increased humancapital, and domestic structural change—play in changing migration patterns as countries develop. The paper exploresthese migration patterns in light of these transformations.