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When Politics Enters the Family: Electoral Outcomes and Fertility in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Łukasz Baszczak

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Ewa Weychert

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between political outcomes and fertility behavior by linking electoral results with individual-level fertility outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing and the narrative decision-making framework (Vignoli et al., 2020; Johnson, Bilovich, & Tuckett, 2023) and the role of political polarization in fertility outcomes (Dahl et al. 2022) it considers how alignment between one’s political preferences and the actual party in power shapes fertility behaviour. Specifically, the study tests whether this alignment increases the probability of a first birth using longitudinal data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) over the period 1991–2020. We derive the month of conception from respondents’ birth histories and combine this information with measures of their political preferences (extrapolated to account for every month in the studied period). The results of a complementary log-log model indicate that the probability of conception is higher when an individual’s preferred party is in government.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Baszczak & Ewa Weychert, 2026. "When Politics Enters the Family: Electoral Outcomes and Fertility in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 2026-17, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-17
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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/68ecac4e-f332-4db2-8be0-27091d581807/4282
    File Function: First version, 2026
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arianna Gatta & Francesco Mattioli & Letizia Mencarini & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 76(3), pages 387-406, September.
    2. Dan M. Kahan & Hank Jenkins-Smith & Donald Braman, 2011. "Cultural cognition of scientific consensus," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 147-174, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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