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Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?

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  • Arianna Gatta
  • Francesco Mattioli
  • Letizia Mencarini
  • Daniele Vignoli

Abstract

The role of employment uncertainty as a fertility driver has previously been studied with a limited set of constructs, leading to inconclusive results. We address this oversight by considering perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to potential job loss as two key dimensions of employment uncertainty in relation to fertility decision-making. The present study relies on the 2017 Italian Trustlab survey and its employment uncertainty module. We find that perception of resilience to job loss is a powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of person-specific risk attitude and does not depend on the unemployment rate or the share of fixed-term contracts in the area of residence. We conclude that the notion of employment uncertainty includes distinct expectations towards the future, which should be considered separately to understand fertility decision-making.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406.

Suggested Citation

  • Arianna Gatta & Francesco Mattioli & Letizia Mencarini & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 76(3), pages 387-406, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:387-406
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406
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    Cited by:

    1. Brienna Perelli-Harris & Theodore Gerber & Yuliya Hilevych, 2024. "Uncertainty and Fertility in Ukraine on the Eve of Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion: The Impact of Armed Conflict and Economic Crisis," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Inga Laß & Irma Mooi-Reci & Mark Wooden & Martin Bujard, 2024. "Temporary employment and first births: A path analysis of the underlying mechanisms using Australian and German panel data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2024n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Elena Vakulenko & Ilya Trofimenko & Valeria Kondrateva & Dmitriy Gorskiy, 2025. "Periods of high uncertainty: How fertility intentions in Russia changed during 2022–2023," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(29), pages 939-970.
    4. Giannantoni, Costanza & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2024. "Regional government institutions and the capacity for women to reconcile career and motherhood," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125631, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Huang, Qian & Fan, Ziang, 2025. "Relaxation of fertility policy and firm’s short-term hiring of female employees: Evidence from China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Jing Zhao & Zhijie Zou & Jianfei Chen & Yujia Chen & Wanfa Lin & Xianbo Pei & Enjing Li & Yajing Dong & Xiaoli Chen, 2024. "Offline social capital, online social capital, and fertility intentions: evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Chen Luo & Ewa Jarosz, 2025. "Job creation, job destruction, and fertility in Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(13), pages 383-414.
    8. Jun Li & Tiantian Li & Wei Wang, 2024. "The impact of income inequality on the fertility intention: A micro perspective based on relative deprivation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(12), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Anna Belykh & Wendy Manning & Monica Longmore & Peggy Giordano & Sara Roza, 2025. "Perceptions of the Future and Pregnancy Avoidance in the U.S," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(3), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2024. "Family Life Courses, Uncertain Futures, and the Changing World of Work: State-of-the-Art and Prospects," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-19, December.

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