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The Short-Term Fertility Impact of Abortion Law Restrictions: A Research Note

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Matysiak

    (Interdisciplinary Center for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam), University of Warsaw)

  • Lucas van der Velde

    (Interdisciplinary Center for Labour Market and Family Dynamics (LabFam), University of Warsaw; Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics; Group for Research in Applied Economics, GRAPE)

Abstract

We examine the short-term fertility effects of Poland’s 2020 Constitutional Tribunal (CT) ruling, which declared abortions on the grounds of fetal anomaly unconstitutional. The decision effectively outlawed nearly all legal abortions, as over 97% had been conducted on this ground. Using vital statistics and interrupted time series analysis, we find a significant and immediate decline in births of around 6.6%. The fertility response was strongest among younger women and first-time mothers, suggesting heightened sensitivity to the increased risks of pregnancy. Contrary to expectations, highly educated women did not significantly adjust fertility, likely due to greater access to abortion services abroad. Our findings demonstrate that abortion bans may lower fertility when they substantially increase the perceived costs and risks of childbearing, particularly in societies with widespread contraceptive use. These results provide insights relevant to current debates in the United States, where overturning of Roe v. Wade may also reshape fertility patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Matysiak & Lucas van der Velde, 2025. "The Short-Term Fertility Impact of Abortion Law Restrictions: A Research Note," Working Papers 2025-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-12
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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/5533/0
    File Function: First version, 2025
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    abortion; reproductive rights; fertility; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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