Two decades of inter-city migration in China: The role of economic, natural and social amenities

China has experienced unprecedented largescale internal migration since the late 1970s. We analyse spatiotemporal changes in migration for 284 prefectural-level cities in China using the 2000, 2010 and 2020 censuses. These cities have over 90% of China's population. Attractiveness of cities varies with amenities, so we use econometric models to identify city-level and province-level economic characteristics and social and natural amenities that drive net migration. Inter-city migration in China is still growing rapidly, with striking regional disparities. China's three urban mega-regions (Beijing-Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta) received most migrants over these two decades, with many coastal and tier-2 cities, especially inland provincial capital cities, emerging as new destinations since 2010. Conversely, inland lower-tier cities have experienced large population losses, especially in Northeast China recently. The importance of amenities in affecting migration patterns differs between all sample cities and 35 major cities, and changes over time. Employment opportunities, and higher wages and development levels still attract migrants, but migrants trade off levels versus growth (source areas are poorer but faster growing than destinations). Booming housing markets have not pushed migrants away. Both city and province fiscal pressures have negative impacts on the net migration rate, while province-level fiscal decentralization enhances attractiveness. Cities with better public transportation services and more pleasant climate are more attractive to migrants. These factors matter less for the major cities, apart from economic opportunities and transportation services. Air quality and province-level economic development significantly contribute to differences in net migration rates among the major cities. Findings from this study can help policymakers to formulate governance measures for sustainable city development during the largest rural-to-urban population flow in human history.