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Neural network and spatial interaction analysis of European commodity flows

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  • Reggiani, Aura

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Nijkamp, Peter
  • Tsang, Wai-Fai

Abstract

The present paper aims to analyse interregional freight transport movements in Europe in order to forecast spatio-temporal patterns of new transport economic scenarios. In view of the high dimension of our data-base on transport flows, two different approaches are compared, viz. the logit model and the neural network model. Logit models are well-known in the literature; however, applications of logit analysis to large samples are more rare. Neural networks are nowadays receiving a considerable attention as a new approach that is able to capture major patterns of flows, on the basis of fuzzy and incomplete information. In this context an assessment of this method on the basis of a large amount of data is an interesting research endeavour. The paper will essentially deal with a research experiment, oriented towards both calibration/learning procedures and forecasting, in order to compare the two above methodologies as well as to investigate the potential/limitations of the two above mentioned different, but related assessment methods. The first results in this framework highlight the fact that the two models adopted, although methodologically different, are both able to provide a reasonable spatial mapping of the interregional transport flows under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Reggiani, Aura & Nijkamp, Peter & Tsang, Wai-Fai, 1997. "Neural network and spatial interaction analysis of European commodity flows," Serie Research Memoranda 0068, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:1997-68
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Verhoef, 1996. "The Economics of Regulating Road Transport," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 939.
    2. Fischer, Manfred M. & Gopal, Sucharita, 1994. "Artificial Neural Networks. A New Approach to Modelling Interregional Telecommunication Flows," MPRA Paper 77822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peter Nijkamp & Tommaso Tritapepe & Aura Reggiani, 1997. "Spatial choice behaviour: logit models and neural network analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 31(4), pages 411-429.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neural network models - Mode analysis - European networks - Forecasts -Complex systems - Computer experiments;

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