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Spatial modal patterns in European freight transport networks: results of neurocomputing and logit models

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  • Reggiani, Aura

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Nijkamp, Peter
  • Nobilio, Lucia

Abstract

The present paper aims to analyse interregional freight transport movements in Europe with a view on forecasting future patterns of transport flows using simple economic scenarios. In view of the high dimension of our data-base on transport flows, two different approaches are compared, viz. the logit model and the neural network model. Logit models are well-known in the literature; however, applications of logit analysis to large samples are more rare. Neural networks are nowadays receiving a considerable attention as a new approach that is able to capture major patterns of flows, on the basis of fuzzy and incomplete information. In this context an assessment of this method on the basis of a large amount of data is an interesting research endeavour. The paper will essentially deal with a European research experiment, oriented towards both calibration/learning procedures and spatial forecasting, in order to compare the two above methodologies as well as to investigate the potential/limitations of the two above mentioned intrinsically different, but nevertheless related assessment methods. The application field is the assessment of European (mainly Transalpine) modal freight flows. The first results in this framework highlight the fact that the two models adopted, although methodologically of a different nature, are both able to provide a reasonable spatial mapping of the interregional transport flows under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Reggiani, Aura & Nijkamp, Peter & Nobilio, Lucia, 1997. "Spatial modal patterns in European freight transport networks: results of neurocomputing and logit models," Serie Research Memoranda 0029, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  • Handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:1997-29
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    File URL: http://degree.ubvu.vu.nl/repec/vua/wpaper/pdf/19970029.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Verhoef, 1996. "The Economics of Regulating Road Transport," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 939.
    2. Fischer, Manfred M. & Gopal, Sucharita, 1994. "Artificial Neural Networks. A New Approach to Modelling Interregional Telecommunication Flows," MPRA Paper 77822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Schumacher, Martin & Ro[ss]ner, Reinhard & Vach, Werner, 1996. "Neural networks and logistic regression: Part I," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 661-682, June.
    4. Vach, Werner & Ro[ss]ner, Reinhard & Schumacher, Martin, 1996. "Neural networks and logistic regression: Part II," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 683-701, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General

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