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The Destruction of a Safe Haven Asset?

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Abstract

Gold has been a store of value for centuries and a safe haven for investors in the past decades. However, the increased investment in gold for speculative or hedging purposes has changed the safe haven property. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that investor behaviour has the potential to destroy the safe haven property of gold. The results suggest that an asset cannot be both an investment asset and an effective safe haven asset. This finding has important implications for financial stability since assets are more likely to exhibit excess comovement and volatility in the absence of a safe haven.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk G Baur & Kristoffer Glover, 2012. "The Destruction of a Safe Haven Asset?," Working Paper Series 174, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:174
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    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp174.pdf
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    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Brian H. Boyer & Tomomi Kumagai & Kathy Yuan, 2006. "How Do Crises Spread? Evidence from Accessible and Inaccessible Stock Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 957-1003, April.
    3. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    5. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    6. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    7. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk G Baur & Kristoffer Glover, 2012. "A Gold Bubble?," Working Paper Series 175, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Naveed Raza & Ahmad Ibn Ibrahimy & Azwadi Ali & Sajid Ali, 2016. "Gold and Islamic stocks: A hedge and safe haven comparison in time frequency domain for BRICS markets," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(6), pages 305-318.
    3. Nguyen, Cuong & Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Komorníková, Magda & Komorník, Jozef, 2016. "Gold price and stock markets nexus under mixed-copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 283-292.
    4. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    5. Baur, Dirk G. & Glover, Kristoffer J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 116-133.
    6. Nelson Areal & Benilde Oliveira & Raquel Sampaio, 2015. "When times get tough, gold is golden," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 507-526, April.
    7. Bredin, Don & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2015. "Does gold glitter in the long-run? Gold as a hedge and safe haven across time and investment horizon," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 320-328.
    8. Joachim Klement, 2014. "Facts and Fantasies about Gold," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12.
    9. Baur, Dirk G. & Glover, Kristoffer J., 2015. "Speculative trading in the gold market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 63-71.
    10. Klement, Joachim, 2015. "Facts and Fantasies about Gold," MPRA Paper 64590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Raza, Naveed & Ibrahimy, Ahmad & Ali, Azwadi, 2015. "Gold and Islamic Stocks: A Hedge and Safe Haven Comparison in Time - Grequency domain for BRICS," MPRA Paper 69366, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    safe haven; gold; investor behaviour; funding constraints; contagion;

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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