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Calibrating Market Model to Commodity and Interest Rate Risk

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Abstract

Based on the multi-currency LIBOR Market Model (LMM) this paper constructs a hybrid commodity interest rate market model with a time-dependent stochastic local volatility function allowing the model to simultaneously fit the implied volatility surfaces of commodity and interest rate options. Since liquid market prices are only available for options on commodity futures, rather than forwards, a convexity correction formula for the model is derived to account for the difference between forward and futures prices. A procedure for efficiently calibrating the model to interest rate and commodity volatility smiles is constructed. Finally, the model is fitted to an exogenously given correlation structure between forward interest rates and commodity prices (cross–correlation). When calibrating to options on forwards (rather than futures), the fitting of cross–correlation preserves the (separate) calibration in the two markets (interest rate and commodity options), while in the case of futures a (rapidly converging) iterative fitting procedure is presented. The fitting of cross–correlation is reduced to finding an optimal rotation of volatility vectors, which is shown to be an appropriately modified version of the “orthonormal Procrustes” problem in linear algebra. The calibration approach is demonstrated in an application to market data for oil futures.

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  • Patrik Karlsson & Kay F Pilz & Erik Schlogl, 2016. "Calibrating Market Model to Commodity and Interest Rate Risk," Research Paper Series 372, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:372
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    1. K. R. Miltersen, 2003. "Commodity price modelling that matches current observables: a new approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 51-58.
    2. Erik Schlögl, 2002. "A multicurrency extension of the lognormal interest rate Market Models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 173-196.
    3. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Miltersen, Kristian R & Sandmann, Klaus & Sondermann, Dieter, 1997. "Closed Form Solutions for Term Structure Derivatives with Log-Normal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 409-430, March.
    5. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    6. Miltersen, Kristian R. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1998. "Pricing of Options on Commodity Futures with Stochastic Term Structures of Convenience Yields and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 33-59, March.
    7. Lech A. Grzelak & Cornelis W. Oosterlee, 2012. "On Cross-Currency Models with Stochastic Volatility and Correlated Interest Rates," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-35, February.
    8. Martin Koschat & Deborah Swayne, 1991. "A weighted procrustes criterion," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 229-239, June.
    9. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    10. K. F. Pilz & E. Schlögl, 2013. "A hybrid commodity and interest rate market model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 543-560, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Tin Chun Cheng, 2017. "Pricing and Hedging of Long-Dated Commodity Derivatives," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2017.
    2. repec:uts:finphd:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cheng, Benjamin & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Schlögl, Erik, 2018. "Pricing of long-dated commodity derivatives: Do stochastic interest rates matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 148-166.

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    Keywords

    Calibration; Commodity markets; Derivative pricing; Interest rate modelling; Interest rate derivatives; Oil futures; Energy derivatives;
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