IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/rpaper/321.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling of Oil Prices

Author

Abstract

The paper derives a parsimonious two-component affine diffusion model with one driving Brownian motion to capture the dynamics of oil prices. It can be observed that the oil price behaves in some sense similarly to the US dollar. However, there are also clear differences. To identify these the paper studies the empirical features of an extremely well diversified world stock index, which is a proxy of the numeraire portfolio, in the denomination of the oil price. Using a diversified index in oil price denomination allows us to disentangle the factors driving the oil price. The paper reveals that the volatility of the numeraire portfolio denominated in crude oil, increases at major oil price upward moves. Furthermore, the log-returns of the index in oil price denomination appear to follow a Student-t distribution. These and other stylized empirical properties lead to the proposed tractable diffusion model, which has the normalized numeraire portfolio and market activity as components. An almost exact simulation technique is described, which illustrates the characteristics of the proposed model and confirms that it matches well the observed stylized empirical facts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke Du & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Modeling of Oil Prices," Research Paper Series 321, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/qfr-archive-03/QFR-rp321.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2007. "Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices," Research Paper Series 194, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Eckhard Platen, 2011. "A Benchmark Approach to Investing and Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 28, pages 409-426, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A Benchmark Approach To Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 131-151, January.
    4. Alfonsi Aurélien, 2005. "On the discretization schemes for the CIR (and Bessel squared) processes," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 355-384, December.
    5. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
    6. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Approximating the numéraire portfolio by naive diversification," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 34-50, February.
    7. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "The Affine Nature of Aggregate Wealth Dynamics," Research Paper Series 322, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    2. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013.
    3. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 23, July-Dece.
    4. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "The Affine Nature of Aggregate Wealth Dynamics," Research Paper Series 322, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 23, July-Dece.
    3. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2013.
    4. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2009. "Simulation of Diversified Portfolios in a Continuous Financial Market," Research Paper Series 264, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Mathias Barkhagen & Jörgen Blomvall & Eckhard Platen, 2016. "Recovering the real-world density and liquidity premia from option data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 1147-1164, July.
    6. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018.
    7. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    8. K. Fergusson, 2017. "Explicit Formulae For Parameters Of Stochastic Models Of A Discounted Equity Index Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation With Applications," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 1-31, June.
    9. Ralph Rudd & Thomas A. McWalter & Joerg Kienitz & Eckhard Platen, 2018. "Quantization Under the Real-world Measure: Fast and Accurate Valuation of Long-dated Contracts," Papers 1801.07044, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    10. Jan Baldeaux & Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen, 2015. "A Hybrid Model for Pricing and Hedging of Long-dated Bonds," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 366-398, September.
    11. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2013. "Real World Pricing of Long Term Cash-Linked Annuities and Equity-Linked Annuities with Cash-Linked Guarantees," Research Paper Series 338, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    12. Jan Baldeaux & Eckhard Platen, 2015. "Credit Derivative Evaluation and CVA Under the Benchmark Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(3), pages 305-331, September.
    13. Leunglung Chan & Eckhard Platen, 2010. "Exact Pricing and Hedging Formulas of Long Dated Variance Swaps under a $3/2$ Volatility Model," Papers 1007.2968, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2011.
    14. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2017. "Market Efficiency and Growth Optimal Portfolio," Papers 1706.06832, arXiv.org.
    15. Jan Baldeaux & Eckhard Platen, 2013. "Liability Driven Investments under a Benchmark Based Approach," Research Paper Series 325, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Ke Du & Eckhard Platen, 2011. "Three-Benchmarked Risk Minimization for Jump Diffusion Markets," Research Paper Series 296, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    17. Baldeaux Jan & Ignatieva Katja & Platen Eckhard, 2014. "A tractable model for indices approximating the growth optimal portfolio," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21, February.
    18. Nicola Bruti-Liberati & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen & Erik Schlögl, 2009. "Alternative Defaultable Term Structure Models," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, March.
    19. Eckhard Platen, 2008. "A Unifying Approach to Asset Pricing," Research Paper Series 227, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    20. Palma, Nuno, 2018. "Money and modernization in early modern England," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 231-261, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodities; oil price; numeraire portfolio; market activity; square root processes; benchmark approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.