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Portfolio Selection with Narrow Framing: Probability Weighting Matters

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  • Enrico G. De Giorgi

    ()

  • Shane Legg

    ()

Abstract

This paper extends the model with narrow framing suggested by Barberis and Huang (2009) to also account for probability weighting and a convex-concave value function in the specification of cumulative prospect theory preferences on narrowly framed assets. We show that probability weighting is needed in order that investors reduce their holding of narrowly framed risky assets in the presence of negative skewness and high Sharpe ratios, which are typical characteristics of stock index returns. The model with framing and probability weighting can thus explain the stock participation puzzle under realistic assumptions on stock market returns. We also show that a convex-concave value function generates wealth effects that are consistent with empirical observations on stock market participation. Finally, we address the asset pricing implications of probability weighting in the model with narrow framing and show that in the case of negative skewness the equity premium of narrowly framed assets is much higher than when probability weighting is not taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico G. De Giorgi & Shane Legg, 2009. "Portfolio Selection with Narrow Framing: Probability Weighting Matters," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-12, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2009:2009-12
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    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/dp2009/DP-0912-Gi.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    2. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March.
    3. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Social Interaction and Stock-Market Participation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 137-163, February.
    4. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Individual Preferences, Monetary Gambles, and Stock Market Participation: A Case for Narrow Framing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1069-1090, September.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    6. Enrico Giorgi & Thorsten Hens & János Mayer, 2007. "Computational aspects of prospect theory with asset pricing applications," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 267-281, May.
    7. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico G. De Giorgi, 2009. "Goal-Based Investing with Cumulative Prospect Theory and Satisficing Behavior," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Narrow framing; cumulative prospect theory; probability weighting function; negative skewness; simulation methods;

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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