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The Effect of New Market-Rate Housing Construction on the Low-Income Housing Market

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  • Evan Mast

    (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

Abstract

Increasing supply is frequently proposed as a solution to rising housing costs. However, there is little evidence on how new market-rate construction—which is typically expensive—affects the market for lower quality housing in the short run. I begin by using address history data to identify 52,000 residents of new multifamily buildings in large cities, their previous address, the current residents of those addresses, and so on. This sequence quickly adds lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting that strong migratory connections link the low-income market to new construction. Next, I combine the address histories with a simulation model to estimate that building 100 new market-rate units leads 45-70 and 17-39 people to move out of below-median and bottom-quintile income tracts, respectively, with almost all of the effect occurring within five years. This suggests that new construction reduces demand and loosens the housing market in low- and middle-income areas, even in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Mast, 2019. "The Effect of New Market-Rate Housing Construction on the Low-Income Housing Market," Upjohn Working Papers 19-307, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:19-307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Housing Gotham: The 21st Century So Far (Part I)
      by Jason Barr in Skynomics Blog on 2021-09-27 12:02:57
    2. Skyscrapers and Housing Affordability: Debunking Misconceptions
      by Jason Barr in Skynomics Blog on 2021-03-23 12:10:58

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    Cited by:

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    3. Brian Asquith & Evan Mast & Davin Reed, 2019. "Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas," Upjohn Working Papers 19-316, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    4. Mense, Andreas, 2020. "The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224569, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Alex W. Bartik & Evan Mast, 2021. "Black Suburbanization: Causes and Consequences of a Transformation of American Cities," Upjohn Working Papers 21-355, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    6. Mense, Andreas, 2021. "Secondary housing supply," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    7. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. Liu, Liyi & McManus, Doug & Yannopoulos, Elias, 2022. "Geographic and temporal variation in housing filtering rates," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    9. Bratu, Cristina & Harjunen, Oskari & Saarimaa, Tuukka, 2021. "City-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from moving chains," Working Papers 146, VATT Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing supply; housing affordability; filtering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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