IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedpwp/87487.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease nearby rents by 5 to 7 percent relative to locations slightly farther away or developed later, and they increase in-migration from low-income areas. Results are driven by a large supply effect—we show that new buildings absorb many high-income households—that overwhelms any offsetting endogenous amenity effect. The latter may be small because most new buildings go into already-changing areas. Contrary to common concerns, new buildings slow local rent increases rather than initiate or accelerate them.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Asquith & Evan Mast & Davin Reed, 2020. "Supply Shock Versus Demand Shock: The Local Effects of New Housing in Low-Income Areas," Working Papers 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:87487
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2020/wp20-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.07?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Raymond Owens, 2010. "Housing Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 485-535, June.
    2. Hankinson, Michael, 2018. "When Do Renters Behave Like Homeowners? High Rent, Price Anxiety, and NIMBYism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(3), pages 473-493, August.
    3. Evan Mast, 2019. "The Effect of New Market-Rate Housing Construction on the Low-Income Housing Market," Upjohn Working Papers 19-307, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    4. Eriksen, Michael D. & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2010. "Crowd out effects of place-based subsidized rental housing: New evidence from the LIHTC program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 953-966, December.
    5. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Enrico Moretti, 2019. "Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-39, April.
    6. McKinnish, Terra & Walsh, Randall & Kirk White, T., 2010. "Who gentrifies low-income neighborhoods?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 180-193, March.
    7. Gyourko, Joseph & Molloy, Raven, 2015. "Regulation and Housing Supply," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1289-1337, Elsevier.
    8. Guerrieri, Veronica & Hartley, Daniel & Hurst, Erik, 2013. "Endogenous gentrification and housing price dynamics," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 45-60.
    9. Leah Platt Boustan & Robert A. Margo & Matthew M. Miller & James M. Reeves & Justin P. Steil, 2019. "Does Condominium Development Lead to Gentrification," Working Papers 2019-11, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    10. John M. Quigley & Steven Raphael, 2004. "Is Housing Unaffordable? Why Isn't It More Affordable?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 191-214, Winter.
    11. Ding, Lei & Hwang, Jackelyn & Divringi, Eileen, 2016. "Gentrification and residential mobility in Philadelphia," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 38-51.
    12. Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2013. "Superstar Cities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 167-199, November.
    13. Quigley, John M. & Rosenthal, Larry A., 2005. "The Effects of Land-Use Regulation on the Price of Housing: What Do We Know? What Can We Learn?," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt90m9g90w, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    14. Jack Favilukis & Pierre Mabille & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2023. "Affordable Housing and City Welfare," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 293-330.
    15. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Marion, Justin, 2009. "The effects of low income housing tax credit developments on neighborhoods," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(5-6), pages 654-666, June.
    16. Henry O. Pollakowski & Susan M. Wachter, 1990. "The Effects of Land-Use Constraints on Housing Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 66(3), pages 315-324.
    17. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 2014. "Are Private Markets and Filtering a Viable Source of Low-Income Housing? Estimates from a "Repeat Income" Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 687-706, February.
    18. Charles Nathanson, 2019. "Trickle-Down Housing Economics," 2019 Meeting Papers 537, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Schwartz, Amy Ellen & Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Voicu, Ioan & Schill, Michael H., 2006. "The external effects of place-based subsidized housing," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 679-707, November.
    20. Rebecca Diamond & Tim McQuade & Franklin Qian, 2019. "The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3365-3394, September.
    21. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Nathaniel Hendren & Maggie R. Jones & Sonya R. Porter, 2018. "The Opportunity Atlas: Mapping the Childhood Roots of Social Mobility," Working Papers 18-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    22. Vicki Been & Ingrid Gould Ellen & Katherine O’Regan, 2019. "Supply Skepticism: Housing Supply and Affordability," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 25-40, January.
    23. Rebecca Diamond & Tim McQuade, 2019. "Who Wants Affordable Housing in Their Backyard? An Equilibrium Analysis of Low-Income Property Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1063-1117.
    24. Devin Bunten, 2017. "Is the Rent Too High? Aggregate Implications of Local Land-Use Regulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Ganong, Peter & Shoag, Daniel, 2017. "Why has regional income convergence in the U.S. declined?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 76-90.
    26. Andrii Parkhomenko, 2018. "The Rise of Housing Supply Regulation in the US: Local Causes and Aggregate Implications," 2018 Meeting Papers 275, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Hartley, Daniel, 2014. "The effect of foreclosures on nearby housing prices: Supply or dis-amenity?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 108-117.
    28. Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), 2015. "Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 5.
    29. David Albouy & Gabriel Ehrlich & Yingyi Liu, 2016. "Housing Demand, Cost-of-Living Inequality, and the Affordability Crisis," NBER Working Papers 22816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Divya Singh, 2020. "Do Property Tax Incentives for New Construction Spur Gentrification? Evidence from New York City," 2020 Papers psi856, Job Market Papers.
    31. Leah Brooks & Byron Lutz, 2016. "From Today's City to Tomorrow's City: An Empirical Investigation of Urban Land Assembly," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 69-105, August.
    32. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 855-902, April.
    33. Rebecca Diamond, 2017. "Housing Supply Elasticity and Rent Extraction by State and Local Governments," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 74-111, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Skyscrapers and Housing Affordability: Debunking Misconceptions
      by Jason Barr in Skynomics Blog on 2021-03-23 12:10:58

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jung Sakong, 2021. "Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in US Housing Markets," Working Paper Series WP-2021-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Nicholas Chiumenti & Aradhya Sood, 2022. "Local Zoning Laws and the Supply of Multifamily Housing in Greater Boston," New England Public Policy Center Research Report 22-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Jiafeng Chen & Edward Glaeser & David Wessel, 2022. "JUE Insight: The (Non-)Effect of Opportunity Zones on Housing Prices," Papers 2204.06967, arXiv.org.
    4. Boeing, Geoff & Besbris, Max & Wachsmuth, David & Wegmann, Jake, 2021. "Tilted Platforms: Rental Housing Technology and the Rise of Urban Big Data Oligopolies," SocArXiv 8jrfe, Center for Open Science.
    5. Chen, Jiafeng & Glaeser, Edward & Wessel, David, 2023. "JUE Insight: The (non-)effect of opportunity zones on housing prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Michael Klien & Gerhard Streicher, 2021. "Ökonomische Wirkungen des gemeinnützigen Wohnbaus," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66962, April.
    7. Chatman, Daniel G. PhD & Barbour, Elisa PhD & Kerzhner, Tamara & Manville, Michael PhD & Reid, Carolina PhD, 2023. "Policies to Improve Transportation Sustainability, Accessibility, and Housing Affordability in the State of California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt03z7t8r1, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    8. Mast, Evan, 2023. "JUE Insight: The effect of new market-rate housing construction on the low-income housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Reher, Michael, 2021. "Finance and the supply of housing quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 357-376.
    10. Michael Manville & Michael Lens & Paavo Monkkonen, 2022. "Zoning and affordability: A reply to Rodríguez-Pose and Storper," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(1), pages 36-58, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evan Mast, 2020. "Warding Off Development: Local Control, Housing Supply, and NIMBYs," Upjohn Working Papers 20-330, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    2. Mense, Andreas, 2020. "The Impact of New Housing Supply on the Distribution of Rents," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224569, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. González-Pampillón, Nicolás, 2022. "Spillover effects from new housing supply," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Clémence Tricaud, 2019. "Better alone? Evidence on the costs of intermunicipal cooperation," Economics Working Paper from Condorcet Center for political Economy at CREM-CNRS 2019-12-ccr, Condorcet Center for political Economy.
    6. Blanco, Hector & Neri, Lorenzo, 2023. "Knocking It Down and Mixing It Up: The Impact of Public Housing Regenerations," IZA Discussion Papers 15855, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Evan Mast, 2019. "The Effect of New Market-Rate Housing Construction on the Low-Income Housing Market," Upjohn Working Papers 19-307, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    8. Divya Singh, 2020. "Do Property Tax Incentives for New Construction Spur Gentrification? Evidence from New York City," 2020 Papers psi856, Job Market Papers.
    9. Charles Nathanson, 2019. "Trickle-Down Housing Economics," 2019 Meeting Papers 537, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Quincy, Sarah, 2022. "Income shocks and housing spillovers: Evidence from the World War I Veterans’ Bonus," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Jack Favilukis & Pierre Mabille & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2023. "Affordable Housing and City Welfare," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 293-330.
    12. Nicolás González-Pampillón, 2019. "Spillover effects from new housing supply," CEP Discussion Papers dp1660, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Victor Couture & Cecile Gaubert & Jessie Handbury & Erik Hurst, 2019. "Income Growth and the Distributional Effects of Urban Spatial Sorting," NBER Working Papers 26142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Olsen, Edgar O. & Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2015. "US Housing Policy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 887-986, Elsevier.
    15. Gonzalez Pampillon, Nicolas, 2019. "Spillover effects from new housing supply," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103446, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Corinth, Kevin & Irvine, Amelia, 2023. "JUE Insight: The Effect of Relaxing Local Housing Market Regulations on Federal Rental Assistance Programs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    17. Christian A. L. Hilber & Olivier Schoni, 2022. "Housing policy and affordable housing," CEP Occasional Papers 56, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    18. David Foster & Joseph Warren, 2022. "The NIMBY problem," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 34(1), pages 145-172, January.
    19. Mense, Andreas, 2021. "Secondary housing supply," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    20. Nicholas Chiumenti & Amrita Kulka & Aradhya Sood, 2022. "How to Increase Housing Affordability: Understanding Local Deterrents to Building Multifamily Housing," Working Papers 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing supply; housing affordability; gentrification; amenities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:87487. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Beth Paul (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbphus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.