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The Lucas Imperfect Information Model with Imperfect Common Knowledge

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  • Takashi Ui

    (Hitotsubashi University)

Abstract

In the Lucas Imperfect Information model, output responds to unanticipated monetary shocks. We incorporate more general information structures into the Lucas model and demonstrate that output also responds to (dispersedly) anticipated monetary shocks if the information is imperfect common knowledge. Thus, the real effects of money consist of the unanticipated part and the anticipated part, and we decompose the latter into two effects, an imperfect common knowledge effect and a private information effect. We then consider an information structure composed of public and private signals. The real effects disappear when either signal reveals monetary shocks as common knowledge. However, when the precision of private information is fixed, the real effects are small not only when a public signal is very precise but also when it is very imprecise. This implies that a more precise public signal can amplify the real effects and make the economy more volatile.

Suggested Citation

  • Takashi Ui, 2019. "The Lucas Imperfect Information Model with Imperfect Common Knowledge," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 007, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:upd:utmpwp:007
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ui, Takashi, 2016. "Bayesian Nash equilibrium and variational inequalities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 139-146.
    2. Jeffery Amato & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000092, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Hyun Song Shin & Jeffery D. Amato, 2003. "Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 38, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. van Heumen, R.W.J. & Peleg, B. & Tijs, S.H. & Borm, P.E.M., 1994. "Axiomatic characterizations of solutions for Bayesian games," Research Memorandum FEW 680, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    7. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, March.
    8. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    9. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-588, August.
    10. Ui, Takashi & Yoshizawa, Yasunori, 2015. "Characterizing social value of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 507-535.
    11. Takashi Ui & Yasunori Yoshizawa, 2013. "Radner's Theorem on Teams and Games with a Continuum of Players," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 72-77.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real effects; neutrality of money; iterated expectations; the Lucas model; imperfect common knowledge;

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