Identifying Structural Breaks in the Lebanese Economy 1970-2003: An Application of the Zivot and Andrews Test
During the 1960s and early 1970s the Lebanese economy was characterized by low inflation, high growth, sizeable balance of payments surpluses and small public sector deficits, which made it a highly attractive business centre. During this period the country was described as the Switzerland or Paris of the East. This macroeconomic stability did not last long, however, as the economy subsequently underwent fundamental structural changes during most years after the mid 1970s. The aim of this paper is to identify the timing of major structural breaks in the Lebanese economy by applying the Zivot and Andrews (ZA) (1992) procedure, using annual time series data spanning the years from 1970 through 2003. The empirical results from the ZA model, which endogenously identifies the most significant structural breaks in each of the macroeconomic variables, clearly show that the null hypothesis of at least one unit root could be rejected for some of the variables under investigation. In other words, some of the variables, which contain a unit root based on the conventional unit root test, become stationary after taking into account the existence of potential structural breaks in the series . The results are statistically significant and the endogenous structural breaks identified using this methodology also coincides with periods of major economic shocks to the Lebanese economy. More specifically, most of the structural changes are associated with: the years of the Civil War in Lebanon, which started in 1975; the post 1982 era which started with the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982; the deep recession in 1983-84; and the adverse effects of the 1988-89 currency depreciation on inflation and the real economy.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: School of Economics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Avenue, Wollongong NSW 2522 Australia|
Phone: +612 4221-3659
Fax: +612 4221-3725
Web page: http://business.uow.edu.au/econ/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Helbling & Sena Eken, 1999. "Back to the Future; Postwar Reconstruction and Stabilization in Lebanon," IMF Occasional Papers 176, International Monetary Fund.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998.
"Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models,"
Cahiers de recherche
9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991.
"Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity,"
359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Jose Martelino & S. Nuri Erbas & Adnan Mazarei & Sena Eken & Paul Cashin, 1995. "Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon," IMF Occasional Papers 120, International Monetary Fund.
- Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988.
"Searching For a Break in GNP,"
NBER Working Papers
2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Perron, P., 1994.
"Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables,"
Cahiers de recherche
9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- N/A, 1989. "Annual Report," Evaluation Review, SAGE Publishing, vol. 13(3), pages 320-320, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uow:depec1:wp06-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Siminski)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.