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The Warcast Index: Estimating Economic Activity without Official Data during the Ukraine War in 2022

Author

Listed:
  • Mihnea Constantinescu

    (National Bank of Ukraine
    University of Amsterdam)

  • Kalle Kappner

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

  • Nikodem Szumilo

    (University College London)

Abstract

We introduce the Warcast Index, an approach for estimating regional economic activity during periods of extreme uncertainty using publicly available data. We show that combining widely used correlates of economic activity - nightlight intensity, Google Trends, and Twitter activity - can improve the tracking of economic performance and even allow the approximation of monthly economic activity after extreme structural breaks, like war or occupation. We apply this approach to Ukraine during the 2022 war. Our findings show that combining multiple data sources not only improves tracking accuracy compared to single-correlate models, but also provides timely, transparent and flexible data for policy-making in situations where conventional economic data is unavailable or unreliable. We also contribute to the literature on wartime economics by providing a novel analysis of the economic effects of armed conflict with high frequency (monthly) and spatially granular (regional) data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihnea Constantinescu & Kalle Kappner & Nikodem Szumilo, 2024. "The Warcast Index: Estimating Economic Activity without Official Data during the Ukraine War in 2022," Working Papers 03/2024, National Bank of Ukraine.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:wpaper:03/2024
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    File URL: https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/WP_2024-03_Constantinescu.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Doll, Christopher N.H. & Muller, Jan-Peter & Morley, Jeremy G., 2006. "Mapping regional economic activity from night-time light satellite imagery," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 75-92, April.
    2. Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
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    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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