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Post Econometric Policy Evaluation : A Critique

  • Ingram, B.

    ()

    (University of Iowa)

An increasingly popular approach to policy evaluation involves applying the parameters calibrated for a real business cycle model that does not include policy to a different model, where policy does affect private decisions. This technique, in effect, estimates a model that misspecifies how private behavior depends on policy. The calibrated parameters depend on policy behavior, but calibrators overlook this dependence when projecting policy effects. This procedure repeats the "Keynesian" errors that Lucas (1976) noted in his influential critique of (then) standard methods of econometric policy evaluation and produces predictions of policy consequences that may be no more useful than ones from traditional econometric models.

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Paper provided by University of Iowa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 90-30.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 1990
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uia:iowaec:90-30
Contact details of provider: Postal:
University of Iowa, Department of Economics, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Iowa City, Iowa 52242

Phone: (319) 335-0829
Fax: (319) 335-1956
Web page: http://tippie.uiowa.edu/economics/

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  1. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1984. "Money and Interest in Cash-In-Advance Economy," Discussion Papers 628, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  3. Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1988. "The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model," RCER Working Papers 155, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Alberto Giovannini & Pamela Labadie, 1989. "Asset Prices and Interest Rates in Cash-In-Advance Models," NBER Working Papers 3109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Real business cycle theory: wisdom or whimsy?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Greenwood, J. & Huffman, G., 1991. "Tax Analysis in A Real Business Cycle Model: On Measuring Harberger Triangles and Okun Gaps," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9103, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  10. Wilbur John Coleman, 1988. "Money, interest, and capital in a cash-in-advance economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 323, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Pamela Labadie, 1989. "Stochastic inflation and the equity premium," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 12, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Robert G. King & Sergio Rebelo, 1990. "Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications," NBER Working Papers 3338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  14. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  15. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  16. Jerusalem D. Levhari & T. N. Srinivasan, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 153-163.
  17. Jeremy Greenwood & Zvi Hercowitz, 1990. "The allocation of goods and time over the business cycle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 26, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T., 1989. "Transitional Dynamics And Economic Growth In The Neoclassical Model," RCER Working Papers 206, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  19. Hansen, Gary D & Imrohoroglu, Ayse, 1992. "The Role of Unemployment Insurance in an Economy with Liquidity Constraints and Moral Hazard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 118-42, February.
  20. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Smith, Lance, 1987. "On the superneutrality of money in a stochastic dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 475-499, December.
  21. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  22. Finn E. Kydland, 1989. "The role of money in a business cycle model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 23, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-15, May.
  24. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
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