El déficit del Banco de Previsión Social y su impacto en las finanzas del gobierno uruguayo
The Uruguayan pension system is one of the largest in Latin America relative to the country size. In 1995, the parliament passed a new pension law that introduced structural reforms in the system. The key goal of the reform was to restore intertemporal sustainability of the public budget, that was threatened by the steady growth of pension expenditure. The present paper summarizes some results from simulations designed to assess fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the reform. In the base scenario, the deficit of the public pension program and the primary deficit of the government rise at the inception - the so-called transition deficit-, but reduce significantly in the medium to long run. Sensitivity analysis shows that the expected improvement in the control of evasion is a key variable in the projected reduction of the primary deficit.
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- Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Un modelo de simulación de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0598, Department of Economics - dECON.
- Alvaro Forteza, 2003. "Seguridad social y competencia política," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0403, Department of Economics - dECON.
- Alvaro Forteza, 2002. "Un modelo macroeconómico de simulación para el Banco de Previsión Social," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1202, Department of Economics - dECON.
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