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Credit spread modeling effects on counterparty risk valuation adjustments: a spanish case study

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  • Alberto Fernández Muñoz de Morales

    () (Tecnología y Metodologías. BBVA)

Abstract

We analyze the effects of the financial crisis in credit valuation adjustments (CVA's). Following the arbitrage-free valuation framework presented in Brigo et al. (2009), we consider a model with stochastic Gaussian interest rates and CIR++ default intensities. Departing from previous literature, we are able to calibrate default intensities profiting from Gaussian mapping techniques presented in Brigo and Alfonsi (2004), and reproduce the historically observed instantaneous covariances of CDS prices. To test the calibration procedure, we track the Spanish financial sector, who has behaved in a singular manner through the crisis, regarded among the safest in Europe at the beginning, and in need of a partial bailout a few years later. We calculate adjustments involving the two major Spanish banks and a generic European counterpart in these two situations for both interest rate and credit derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Fernández Muñoz de Morales, 2013. "Credit spread modeling effects on counterparty risk valuation adjustments: a spanish case study," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-32, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1332
    Note: Este trabajo es parte de mi tesis doctoral en Banca y Finanzas Cuantitativas, supervisado por Alfonso Novales Cinca, del Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Quiero expresar mi agradecimiento por los comentarios y observaciones a José Manuel López, Juan Antonio de Juan y Daniel Andrés.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    2. Damiano Brigo & Andrea Pallavicini & Vasileios Papatheodorou, 2009. "Bilateral counterparty risk valuation for interest-rate products: impact of volatilities and correlations," Papers 0911.3331, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
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    4. Haim Levy, 2004. "Prospect Theory and Mean-Variance Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1015-1041.
    5. Damiano Brigo & Agostino Capponi & Andrea Pallavicini & Vasileios Papatheodorou, 2011. "Collateral Margining in Arbitrage-Free Counterparty Valuation Adjustment including Re-Hypotecation and Netting," Papers 1101.3926, arXiv.org.
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    8. Kaur, Amarjot & Prakasa Rao, B.L.S. & Singh, Harshinder, 1994. "Testing for Second-Order Stochastic Dominance of Two Distributions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(05), pages 849-866, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Riesgo de contraparte; Ajuste de valoración de crédito libre de riesgo; Permutas de incumplimiento crediticio; Volatilidad del spread de crédito; Counterparty Risk; Arbitrage-Free Credit Valuation Adjustment; Credit Default Swaps; Credit Spread Volatility.;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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