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Falling birth rates and world population decline: A quantitative discussion (1950-2040)

Author

Listed:
  • Muñoz, Félix

    (Departamento de Análisis Económico (Teoría e Historia Económica). Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

  • Gonzalo, Julio A.

    (Departamento de Física de Materiales. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.)

Abstract

The UN data (1950-2010) and projections (both medium and low-fertility variants for 2015-2040) show that fertility rates are already below replacement level in all continents except Africa. In this paper we develop a simple new approach for population projections based on a Improved Rate Equations (IRE) model. Population projections under the (1) Malthusian assumption, (2) an (IRE) model fitting and extrapolating from actual UN population data up to 2040, and (3) UN projections (low-fertility variant) are compared. The model fits quite well actual data and suggests a world population decline in the 21st Century. The economic, social and political consequences of this new and global circumstance would be far reaching.

Suggested Citation

  • Muñoz, Félix & Gonzalo, Julio A., 2013. "Falling birth rates and world population decline: A quantitative discussion (1950-2040)," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2013/03, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    • Handle: RePEc:uam:wpaper:201303
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    File URL: http://www.uam.es/departamentos/economicas/analecon/especifica/mimeo/wp20133.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Douglass C. North, 2005. "Introduction to Understanding the Process of Economic Change," Introductory Chapters, in: Understanding the Process of Economic Change, Princeton University Press.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo, Julio A. & Muñoz, Félix, 2014. "Prospects of world population decline in the near future: a short note," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2014/01, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    world population decline; population trends; jump in population level; improved rate equations model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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