Path-Dependent Behavior with Asymmetric Information about Traders' Types
We define path-dependency as the generic phenomenon according to which agents take an action regardless of their private information. Path-dependency can be of two types contingent on whether agents act with the crowd (herding) or against the crowd (contrarianism). We consider a quote-driven market where traders can in some cases observe whether their predecessors were informed, although they cannot observe their private information, while in other cases they are left with the uncertainty that their predecessors acted purely for liquidity motives. In this setting we recover herding and contrarianism and we find that better-informed markets (i.e. where informed traders receive high precision signals) can generate path-dependent behavior more easily than poorly informed ones. Moreover, we illustrate how a market dominated by herding features a price that is more informative of the asset value than the price of a market where traders always follow their signal. We also discuss how contrarianism has the exact opposite effect by decreasing price informativeness.
|Date of creation:||29 Jul 2012|
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- Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521530927, June.
- Andreas Park & Hamid Sabourian, 2011.
"Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets,"
Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 973-1026, 07.
- Park, A. & Sabourian, H., 2009. "Herding and Contrarian Behaviour in Financial Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0939, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521824019, June.
- Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September.
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