Kurak Donemlerde Elektrik Uretim Kaynaklari Arasindaki Ikame ve Bu Ikamenin Ithalat Uzerindeki Etkileri

[TR] Yagis miktarinin az oldugu donemlerde hidroelektrik uretiminde dusus beklenir. Bu donemlerde elektrik talebinin karsilanmasi icin alternatif enerji kaynaklarina basvurulmasi gerekmektedir. Bu kaynaklarin bazilarinin ithal ediliyor olmasi ise kaynaklar arasi ikameyi, ikamenin buyuklugunu ve zamanlamasini iktisadi acidan daha onemli hale getirmektedir. Bu calismada kurak gecen donemlerde elektrik uretim kaynaklari arasindaki ikamenin yapisi analiz edilmekte ve bunun dis ticaret dengesi uzerindeki olasi sonuclari tartisilmaktadir. Sonuclar dusuk yagis miktarinin, beklendigi gibi, hidroelektrik uretiminde azalmaya yol actigini gostermektedir. Hidroelektrik uretimdeki bu azalma kisa vadede dogal gaz tarafindan ikame edilse de orta vadede her iki kaynagi da komur ikame etmektedir. Dogal gazin tamamina yakini ithal edildiginden, calismanin sonuclari kurakligin Turkiye’nin dis ticareti uzerindeki enerji kaynakli olumsuz etkisinin buyuk olcude gecici olduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] The periods with a low level of rainfall is expected to be associated with a decline in hydroelectricity production. In these periods, the electricity needs have to be met with alternative energy sources. If some of these energy sources are imported, the degree and the timing of the substitution between alternative sources become economically important parameters. This study analyses the substitution between alternative sources of electricity production in times of drought and discusses its possible effect on Turkey’s trade balance. Empirical findings show that, as expected, a significant decline in the level of rainfall leads to a reduction in hydroelectricity production. In the short run, the hydroelectricity production is substituted with the electricity production in natural gas power plants. However, coal substitutes both of these resources in the medium to long run. Since natural gas is imported from abroad, we argue that the effect of drought on Turkey’s trade balance due to energy imports would be temporary.