IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/econot/1216.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik

Author

Listed:
  • Oguz Atuk
  • M. Utku Ozmen
  • Orhun Sevinc

Abstract

[TR] Fiyat endeksleri kapsaminda yilin sadece belirli donemlerinde temin edilebilen urunler guclu mevsimsellik gosteren urunler olarak adlandirilmaktadir. Bu notta, cesitli urun gruplarinin yillik TUFE enflasyonuna yaptigi katkilar incelenerek guclu mevsimselligin ongorulemez fiyat oynakligi olusturmasinin sektorel yapiyla yakindan iliskili oldugu saptanmistir. Ayrica taze meyve ve sebze fiyatlarindaki guclu mevsimsellikten kaynaklanan TUFE oynakliginin, diger urun gruplarindan farkli olarak, aylik bazda da cok yuksek bir belirsizlik icerdigi gosterilmistir. Bu farkliligin enflasyon olcumunde yontemsel olarak dikkate alinmayisinin yasam maliyetinin olcumune ve enflasyon hedeflemesi cercevesinde para politikasina etkileri tartisilmistir. [EN] Strong seasonality is a special case of seasonality which is characterized by the unavailability of products in every period of the year in the market. In this note, contributions to annual CPI inflation of selected product groups are analyzed. Results suggest that strong seasonality driven unpredictable volatility is closely linked to the structure of the sectors. Moreover, strong seasonality induced CPI volatility from fresh fruits and vegetables are shown to exhibit great uncertainty in monthly terms as well, compared to other product groups. Effects of ignoring this condition in CPI calculation on the cost of living measurement and the monetary policy under inflation targeting framework are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2012. "Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1216, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/aad0921c-34f3-4961-b6d5-09817aefbc10/EN1216eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-aad0921c-34f3-4961-b6d5-09817aefbc10-m3fw54T
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Tugrul Gurgur & Fethi Ogunc, 2008. "Kuresel Isinma, Kuresellesme ve Gida Krizi - Turkiye'de Islenmis Gida Fiyatlari Uzerine Ampirik Bir Calisma," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(2), pages 1-32.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fethi Ogunc, 2010. "Turkiye'de Islenmemis Gida Enflasyonunda Oynaklik : Durum Tespiti," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2011. "Price Rigidity In Turkey : Evidence From Micro Data," Working Papers 1125, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2013. "Treatment of Seasonal Products and CPI Volatility," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 51-82.
    6. Oguz Atuk & Orhun Sevinc, 2010. "TUFE'de Sabit ve Degisken Agirlik Sistemi Yaklasimlari: Turkiye Taze Meyve-Sebze Fiyatlari Uzerine Bir Uygulama," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1015, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & Fethi Ogunc & M. Utku Ozmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Turkiye’de Uretici ve Tuketici Fiyatlari Arasindaki Iliski Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1321, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2013. "Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Mevsimlik Urunlerin Fiyat Endeksine Dahil Edilmesi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1317, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.