IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tcb/cebare/v13y2013i1p51-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Treatment of Seasonal Products and CPI Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Oguz Atuk
  • M. Utku Ozmen
  • Orhun Sevinc

Abstract

In this study, we first discuss the issues of treatment of seasonal items in consumer price indices (CPI), strong seasonality and unpredictable volatility. Later we examine the effect of selected seasonal treatment methods on the volatility of Laspeyres-type CPI for the first time using a unique data set of fresh fruits and vegetables prices from 2007 to 2011. Based on combination of treatment methods we calculate 720 different fresh fruits and vegetables price indices. Results suggest that using 2 or 3 month price averages reduces the monthly volatility of strongly seasonal products by 15 and 23 percent, respectively, in comparison to using one month averages. Also, using fixed weights yields 18 percent lower volatility than using variable weights. The other categories of base price selection, imputation of missing prices and treatment of extreme prices/trimming have mixed yet minor effects on volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2013. "Treatment of Seasonal Products and CPI Volatility," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 51-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:51-82
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2013/Volume+13-1/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Tugrul Gurgur & Fethi Ogunc, 2008. "Kuresel Isinma, Kuresellesme ve Gida Krizi - Turkiye'de Islenmis Gida Fiyatlari Uzerine Ampirik Bir Calisma," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(2), pages 1-32.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2012. "Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1216, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Muhsin Ciftci & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2018. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation Persistence: The Case of Turkish Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(1), pages 8-20, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fethi Ogunc, 2010. "Turkiye'de Islenmemis Gida Enflasyonunda Oynaklik : Durum Tespiti," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2012. "Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1216, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer Price Index; Inflation; Strong seasonality; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:51-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.