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Kuresel Isinma, Kuresellesme ve Gida Krizi - Turkiye'de Islenmis Gida Fiyatlari Uzerine Ampirik Bir Calisma

Author

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  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya
  • Tugrul Gurgur
  • Fethi Ogunc

Abstract

For central banks, whose primary objective is to maintain low and sustainable inflation, understanding the determinants of food prices and their sensitivity to monetary policy is crucial for measuring the effectiveness of policy actions. This study empirically analyzes the determinants of the processed food inflation in Turkey. The findings point out that the recent acceleration in the processed food inflation mostly stems from supply side shocks triggered by domestic drought and the upsurge in the international food prices. The emergence of a steep difference between the level of temperature and the seasonal averages gives rise to an increase in the processed food inflation, whereas moderate rise in the temperatures above the seasonal averages slows down the food inflation. The study indicates that the import prices mostly affect the domestic processed food prices through the processed intermediate food products rather than consumption goods. Exchange rate pass-through to processed food prices is faster than the import price pass-through and its effect is mostly felt within the first three months of a change in the exchange rate. The effect of total demand conditions is found to be relatively weak in the sample period considered in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Tugrul Gurgur & Fethi Ogunc, 2008. "Kuresel Isinma, Kuresellesme ve Gida Krizi - Turkiye'de Islenmis Gida Fiyatlari Uzerine Ampirik Bir Calisma," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(2), pages 1-32.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:8:y:2008:i:2:p:1-32
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2008/Volume+8-2/
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2013. "Treatment of Seasonal Products and CPI Volatility," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 51-82.
    2. Fethi Ogunc, 2010. "Turkiye'de Islenmemis Gida Enflasyonunda Oynaklik : Durum Tespiti," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Oguz Atuk & M. Utku Ozmen & Orhun Sevinc, 2012. "Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi : Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1216, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food prices; Inflation dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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