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Modering Financial Fragility In Transition Economies

Capital inflows have an enormous importance in the financing of investment in emerging and transition economies. However short-term inflows, intermediated by the banking sector of the emerging economy, may be subject to early withdrawals. We model a situation where such withdrawals are motivated by a change in either the domestic or the foreign fundamentals. We show that, for a given change in fundamentals, a reversal in the capital flows (and hence a currency crisis) is more likely the more risk averse are the foreign investors into the emerging economy. We also show that a policy to tax early withdrawals may discourage capital inflows which are more likely to give rise to fundamental runs, by helping to select relatively less risk averse investors. However, such a policy would have to be fine tuned in order not to discourage all capital inflows.

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Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 99.03.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jul 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:9903
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  1. Smith, Bruce D., 1984. "Private information, deposit interest rates, and the `stability' of the banking system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 293-317, November.
  2. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  4. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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