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Fiscal uncertainty with donor herding and domestic debt crisis


  • Yohane Khamfula

    () (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)


This study attempts to analyse how uncertainty about future government spending affects the representative individual’s lifetime utility by using a discrete inter-temporal optimizing model. Intuitively, the study shows that the overall effect of a highly positive domestic-debt repayment gap is such that the expected government spending for the next period will go down. The implication of the reduction in government spending due to uncertainty about future debt servicing is that the output and the corresponding investment for the next period will be expected to go down. This outcome is further reinforced by the higher taxes imposed on consumers in an attempt to minimise the next period’s domestic-debt repayment gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Yohane Khamfula, 2006. "Fiscal uncertainty with donor herding and domestic debt crisis," Working Papers 07/2006, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers21

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rate Economics: 1986," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(385), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Yohane Khamfula & Montfort Mlachila & Ephraim Chirwa, 2007. "Donor herding and domestic debt crisis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 299-302.
    4. Daniel, Betty C, 1989. "One-Sided Uncertainty about Future Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 176-189, May.
    5. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-4.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ortiz, Isabel, & Cummins, Matthew. & Karunanethy, Kalaivani., 2015. "Fiscal space for social protection options to expand social investments in 187 countries," ILO Working Papers 994877663402676, International Labour Organization.

    More about this item


    Donor herding behavior; domestic debt crisis; fiscal uncertainty; domestic-debt; repayment gap; government spending;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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