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Variable Capacity Utilization, Ambient Temperature Shocks and Generation Asset Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Chung-Li

    (Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales)

  • Wei Zhu

    (First Choice Power Inc.)

  • Alexandre Dmitriev

    (School of Economics, The University of New South Wales)

Abstract

This paper discusses generation asset valuation in a framework where capital utilization decisions are endogenous. We use real options approach for valuation of natural gas fuelled turbines. Capital utilization choices that we explore include turning on/off the unit, operating the unit at increased firing temperatures (overfiring), and conducting preventive maintenance. Overfiring provides capacity enhancement which comes at the expense of reduced maintenance interval and increased costs of part replacement. We consider the costs and benefits of overfiring in attempt to maximize the asset value by optimally exercising the overfire option. In addition to stochastic processes governing prices, we incorporate an exogenous productivity shock: ambient temperature. We consider how variation in ambient temperature affects the asset value through its effect on gas turbine’s productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung-Li & Wei Zhu & Alexandre Dmitriev, 2009. "Variable Capacity Utilization, Ambient Temperature Shocks and Generation Asset Valuation," Discussion Papers 2009-14, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2009-14
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    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2009-14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Malliaris, A.G. & Kyrtsou, C., 2009. "Editorial introduction of the special issue: "Energy sector pricing and macroeconomic dynamics"," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 825-826, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity generation asset valuation; overfire option; price uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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