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Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management

Author

Listed:
  • Cristiano Cantore

    (University of Surrey)

  • Paul Levine

    (University of Surrey)

  • Giovanni Melina

    (City Univeristy and IMF)

  • Joseph Pearlman

    (City University)

Abstract

The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds – under commitment – the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina & Joseph Pearlman, 2017. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0217, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0217
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2017/DP02-17.pdf
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    1. repec:bla:ausecr:v:52:y:2019:i:1:p:78-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:55-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2018. "Fiscal buffers, private debt and recession: the good, the bad and the ugly," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1186, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2016. "Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation; The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 16/104, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Varthalitis, Petros & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2017. "Fiscal consolidation and its cross-country effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-106.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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