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Estimating Core Inflation - The Role of Oil Price Shocks and Imported Inflation

This paper calculates core inflation, by imposing long run restrictions on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model containing the growth rate of output, inflation and oil prices. Core inflation is identified as that component in inflation that has no long run effect on output. No restrictions are placed on the response of output and inflation to the oil price shocks. The analysis is applied to Norway and the United Kingdom, both oil producing OECD countries. A model that distinguishes between domestic and imported inflation, is also specified for Norway. In both countries, core inflation is a prime mover of CPI (RPI) inflation. However, CPI (RPI) inflation overvalues or undervalues core inflation in many periods, of which oil price shocks are important sources behind this deviation for prolonged periods

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 200.

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Date of creation: Aug 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:200
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  1. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June.
  2. Ahmed, Ehsan & Rosser, J. Jr. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1988. "A global model of OECD aggregate supply and demand using vector autoregressive techniques," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1711-1729, November.
  3. Rodseth, Asbjorn, 1996. " Exchange Rate versus Price Level Targets and Output Stability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 559-77, December.
  4. John M. Roberts, 1990. "The sources of business cycles: a monetarist interpretation," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  7. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
  8. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1996. "Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and in General," NBER Working Papers 5579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
  11. Ray Barrell & Knut A. Magnussen, 1996. "Counterfactual Analyses of Oil Price Shocks using a World Model," Discussion Papers 177, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
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