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The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artefact?

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Arestis

    (Department of Land Economics, University of Cambridge)

  • Michail Karoglou

    (Aston Business School, Aston University)

  • Kostas Mouratidis

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

Abstract

A conventional finding of recursive structural VAR (SVAR) analyses is the price puzzle namely the positive relationship between interest rates and inflation. We employ a Markov regime-switching structural VAR (MRS-SVAR) to investigate whether the price puzzle is present at regimes where there is violation of the Taylor principle. Our results suggest that the price puzzle is a regime-dependent phenomenon driven by passive monetary policy and Choleski identifying restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Arestis & Michail Karoglou & Kostas Mouratidis, 2013. "The Price Puzzle: Fact or Artefact?," Working Papers 2013008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2013008
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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