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Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Shock Absorber?

Author

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  • Maryla Maliszewska
  • Wojciech Maliszewski

Abstract

The paper re-assesses the impact of exchange rate regimes on macroeconomic performance. We test for the relationship between de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications on the one hand, and inflation, output growth and output volatility on the other. We find that, once high-inflation outliers are excluded from the sample, only hard exchange rate pegs are associated with lower inflation compared to the floating regime. There is no significant relationship between output growth and exchange rate regimes, confirming results from previous studies. De jure pegged regimes (broadly defined) are correlated with higher output volatility, but this relationship is reversed for the de facto classification. The last result points to a potential endogeneity problem present when the de facto classification is used in testing for the relationship between exchange rate behavior and macroeconomic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Maryla Maliszewska & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2004. "Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Shock Absorber?," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0272, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0272
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    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/2339955_272.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    3. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Which provides more fiscal discipline?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 399-436, April.
    4. Thomas Philippon & Jeronimo Zettelmeyer & Eduardo Borensztein, 2001. "Monetary Independence in Emerging Markets; Does the Exchange Rate Regime Make a Difference?," IMF Working Papers 01/1, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 387-414.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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