Do Macroeconomic Conditions Matter for Agriculture? The Indian Experience
Macroeconomic instability, characterised by high inflation, a fragile foreign exchange position, high rates of interest, increases uncertainty for any investor or producer and hence slows down economic growth. While this is generally accepted, the usual perception about the agricultural sector, particularly in India, is that it is immune to general macroeconomic shocks. In this paper, we intend to examine this perception formally using a vector auto regressive model. By studying the significance of macroeconomic conditions to the agricultural sector, we observe that the sector is not insulated from macroeconomic shocks.
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