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Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing: A Mean-Variance Analysis

  • Carl Chiarella

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Roberto Dieci

    (Universita' degli Studi di Bologna)

  • Tony He

    ()

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

The aim of this paper is to show, within the mean-variance framework, how the market belief can be constructed as the result of the aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs and how the market equilibrium prices of risky assets can thus be determined. The heterogeneous beliefs are defined in terms of not only the means but also variances and covariances. By constructing the mean and variance of the market belief, we analyze the impact of the heterogeneous beliefs on the market equilibrium asset pricing relation. In particular, we extend the standard CAPM under homogenous beliefs to the one under the heterogeneous beliefs.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 108.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:108
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  1. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  2. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1998. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good To Be True?," NBER Working Papers 6354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
  5. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
  6. Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 9-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  7. Abel, Andrew B., 2002. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July.
  8. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  9. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  10. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  11. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Discrete Time : an Analysis of Pessimism and Doubt," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/341, Paris Dauphine University.
  12. Laurent Calvet & Jean-Michel Grandmont & Isabelle Lemaire, 2001. "Aggregation of Heterogenous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Complete Financial Markets," Working Papers 2001-01, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  13. Jouini, Elyes & Napp, Clotilde, 2006. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset pricing in discrete time: An analysis of pessimism and doubt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1260, July.
  14. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & He, Xue-Zhong, 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations and speculative behavior in a dynamic multi-asset framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 408-427, March.
  15. Xue-Zhong (Tony) He & Carl Chiarella, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  16. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  17. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
  18. Volker Böhm & Carl Chiarella, 2005. "Mean Variance Preferences, Expectations Formation, And The Dynamics Of Random Asset Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 61-97.
  19. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
  20. Detemple Jerome & Murthy Shashidhar, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-320, April.
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