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Application Of The Kalman Filter For Estimating Continuous Time Term Structure Models: Evidence From The Uk And Germany

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  • Rana Chatterjee

Abstract

In this paper a state-space representation for the single-factor Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985) model is employed to analyse the intertemporal dynamics of the term structure for UK Gilts and Euro-denominated German Treasury bonds. Closed form solutions for the prices of discount bonds are derived such that they are a function of the unobserved instantaneous spot rate and the model's parameters. Quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are obtained by using the Kalman filter algorithm to calculate the likelihood function. Empirical results show that a one-factor CIR model provides an adequate description of the dynamics of the UK term structure of interest rates for the period 1999-2003. But it is unable to provide such a good description of the German term structure owing to its inability to account for the market price of risk

Suggested Citation

  • Rana Chatterjee, 2004. "Application Of The Kalman Filter For Estimating Continuous Time Term Structure Models: Evidence From The Uk And Germany," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 346, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alois L. J. Geyer & Stefan Pichler, 1999. "A State‐Space Approach To Estimate And Test Multifactor Cox‐Ingersoll‐Ross Models Of The Term Structure," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-130, March.
    2. Richard, Scott F., 1978. "An arbitrage model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 33-57, March.
    3. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. "Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-135, September.
    4. Geyer, Alois L J & Pichler, Stefan, 1999. "A State-Space Approach to Estimate and Test Multifactor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-130, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Long H. Vo, 2014. "Application of Kalman Filter on modelling interest rates," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Nowman, Khalid Ben, 2010. "Modelling the UK and Euro yield curves using the Generalized Vasicek model: Empirical results from panel data for one and two factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 334-341, December.
    3. Christian Bauer & Sebastian Horlemann, 2016. "Modeling the Term Structure of Exchange Rate Expectations," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 303-335, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman filtering; term structure;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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