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Sources of Subsectoral Growth in South Africa

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  • Fiona Tregenna

Abstract

While South Africa’s growth performance has improved somewhat in recent years, it has generally been poor over the past few decades. This article uses Chenery’s factor decomposition method to analyse the sources of growth in South Africa from 1970 to 2007. Using input-output data, the growth of each subsector is decomposed into components associated with export growth, import substitution, growth in domestic demand, and growth in intermediate demand. The results highlight the dependence on domestic demand expansion as a source of growth since 2000, especially for manufacturing. Subsectors which relied primarily on domestic demand expansion generally performed relatively poorly. Technological change is the only component of growth with a consistently positive and statistically significant correlation with subsectoral growth. The analysis contributes to a better understanding of growth in South Africa, particularly in terms of subsectoral dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiona Tregenna, 2013. "Sources of Subsectoral Growth in South Africa," Working Papers 377, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:377
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    Cited by:

    1. Igor Lopes Rocha, 2016. "Productive Diversification, Structural Transition And Density Of Industrial Chains: Are Brazil And South Korea Different?," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 159, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; sectors; factor decomposition; structural change; Chenery; South Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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