IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rza/ersawp/vy2020iid94.html

How Buoyant Is the South African Tax System? An ARDL Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Baneng Naape

  • Nyasha Mahonye

Abstract

This study aims to scrutinize the responsiveness of the South African tax system to changes in economic performance. The study made use of annual time series data spanning from 1995 — 2017. The tax system was found to be fairly buoyant, albeit there is still room for improvement. The ARDL bounds test results indicate that VAT revenue and custom duties grow at a faster pace than the growth in final household consumption and import value, respectively. VAT revenue has a long run buoyancy coefficient of 1.35 while custom duties have a long run buoyancy coefficient of 1.42. This implies that VAT revenue and custom duties are perfectly elastic to variations in their respective bases, at least in the long run. The estimated buoyancy coefficient for total tax revenue growth is 0.82, implying that the growth in total tax revenue did not match the growth of the economy during the estimation period. The government can improve the efficiency and responsiveness of the tax system through good governance and strong political leadership. Furthermore, structural economic reforms are necessary to boost growth and tax revenue mobilisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Baneng Naape & Nyasha Mahonye, "undated". "How Buoyant Is the South African Tax System? An ARDL Approach," ERSA Working Paper Series v::y:2020:i::id:94, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:v::y:2020:i::id:94
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ersawps.org/index.php/working-paper-series/article/view/94/69
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Rasheed, Farooq, 2006. "An analysis of Tax Buoyancy Rates in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 43388, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2006.
    4. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    5. Khwaja, Munawer Sultan & Iyer, Indira, 2014. "Revenue potential, tax space, and tax gap : a comparative analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6868, The World Bank.
    6. John Creedy, 2010. "Personal Income Tax Structure: Theory and Policy," Chapters, in: Iris Claus & Norman Gemmell & Michelle Harding & David White (ed.), Tax Reform in Open Economies, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Upender, M., 2008. "Degree Of Tax Buoyancy In India : An Empirical Study," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
    8. Vincent Belinga & Ms. Dora Benedek & Ruud A. de Mooij & Mr. John Norregaard, 2014. "Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/110, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suproń, Błażej, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of different types of road transport on economic growth in the Visegrad Group countries: An empirical analysis of the NARDL framework," MPRA Paper 125426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Renáta Pitoňáková, 2018. "Private Sector Savings," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 1, pages 1-17, March.
    3. Pitoňáková, Renáta & Kucharčík, Rudolf & Kabát, Ladislav, 2025. "Is the response of the Slovak labor market asymmetric to output changes?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    4. Nepal Rastra Bank, 2017. "Elasticity and Buoyancy of Taxation in Nepal: A Revisit of the Empirical Evidence," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 29(1), pages 19-32, April.
    5. Musa Foudeh, 2017. "The Long Run Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Growth: The Case of Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 171-192.
    6. Md. Saiful Islam, 2025. "Linking green innovation to environmental quality in Saudi Arabia: an application of the NARDL approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 19741-19762, August.
    7. J. Achua & H. Nagado & I. I. Okafor, 2020. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon? Evidence from Nigeria," Economic and Financial Review, Central Bank of Nigeria, vol. 58(1), March.
    8. Kashif Islam & Ahmad Raza Bilal & Syed Anees Haider Zaidi, 2022. "Symmetric and asymmetric nexus between economic freedom and stock market development in Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2391-2421, November.
    9. Carmen van der Merwe & Martin de Wit, 2021. "An In-Depth Investigation into the Relationship Between Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Economic Growth in the City of Cape Town," Working Papers 07/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, revised 2021.
    10. K.S., Sujit & Ray, Subhajyoti, 2023. "Linear and nonlinear asymmetric relationship in crude oil, gold, stock market and exchange rates: An evidence from the UAE," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
    12. Sohail Abbas & Shazia Kousar & Amber Pervaiz, 2021. "Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13364-13381, September.
    13. Karambir Singh Dhayal & David Forgenie & Arun Kumar Giri & Nikmatul Khoiriyah & Wendy-Ann P. Isaac, 2026. "Modelling the nexus between green energy, agricultural production, forest cover, and population growth towards climate change for the transition towards a green economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 9935-9959, April.
    14. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman, Samuel Ampomah, Joseph Manzvera, 2024. "Determinants of the Share of the Economy Contributed by the Forestry Industry in Ghana from 1975 to 2023," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 5(4), September.
    15. Zameelah Khan Jaffur & Boopen Seetanah & Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia, 2020. "A cross-country analysis of the determinants of the real effective exchange rate in fifteen Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1686-1697.
    16. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Al Rawashdeh, Rami, 2022. "The impact of institutional quality and resources rent on health: The case of GCC," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Fortune Ganda, 2025. "Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in South Africa using the ARDL approach," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 67-99, February.
    18. Zamanipour, Behzad & Ghadaksaz, Hesam & Keppo, Ilkka & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2023. "Electricity supply and demand dynamics in Iran considering climate change-induced stresses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    19. Jagannath Mallick, 2024. "Impact of economic globalisation and productivity on labour share in India and China," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 137-168, June.
    20. Meltem Duğru, 2020. "Twin Deficit Hypothesis and Reverse Causality: An Empirical Study on Turkish Economy," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 413-435, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:ersawp:v::y:2020:i::id:94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maggi Sigg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ersawps.org/index.php/working-paper-series/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.