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Economic Benefits, Costs and Risks for Russia on Trade and Economic Alliances with Countries of CIS, Europe and the USA Contact
[Экономические Выгоды, Издержки И Риски Для России От Торгово-Экономических Союзов Стран Снг Со Стра-Нами Европы И Сша]

Author

Listed:
  • Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр)

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Kazaryan, Margarita (Казарян, Маргарита)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Kuznetsov, D.E. (Кузнецов, Д.Е.)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Sedalishchev, V.V. (Седалищев, В.В.)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

Abstract

The analysis of the agreement on free trade area between Ukraine and the EU and an assessment of the signing of this agreement and the political situation around him will affect the GDP of Russia, Ukraine and the EU, trade flows between the two countries and discussed the risks of termination of cooperation for the individual enterprises of Ukraine and Russia. On the basis of the general equilibrium model, the authors consider the implications for different scenarios of further development of trade relations between Russia and Ukraine. The first scenario is the implementation of the trade agreement on association, namely the zeroing reciprocal duties between the EU and Ukraine. The second scenario is the introduction of CCT EAEC countries in relation to imports from Ukraine, without consideration of the implementation of the commercial part of the association agreement. The third scenario is considering a complete cessation of mutual trade through the introduction of protective (in magnitude) of mutual non-tariff barriers Russia and Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) & Kazaryan, Margarita (Казарян, Маргарита) & Kuznetsov, D.E. (Кузнецов, Д.Е.) & Sedalishchev, V.V. (Седалищев, В.В.) & Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр), 2016. "Economic Benefits, Costs and Risks for Russia on Trade and Economic Alliances with Countries of CIS, Europe and the USA Contact [Экономические Выгоды, Издержки И Риски Для России От Торгово-Экономи," Working Papers 1854, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1854
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Ukraine ; Russia; EU; CIS; trade unions;
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