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Zins- und Wohlfahrtseffekte extremer Niedrigzinspolitik für die Sparer in Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Gerhard Rösl
  • Karl-Heinz Tödter

Abstract

Die repressive Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB führt nach unseren Berechnungen zu geschätzten Zinsverlusten für die deutschen Sparer in einer Größenordnung von 70 Mrd. € pro Jahr. Die Zinsverluste sind höher als die finanziellen Belastungen durch Kapitalertragsteuer und Güterpreisinflation. Dieser Rechnung stehen jedoch die Entlastungen gegenüber, die auf Seiten der (insbesondere öffentlichen) Schuldner zu buchen sind. Wir kalkulieren die gesamten Netto-Wohlfahrtseffekte mehrstufig im Rahmen eines Modells überlappender Generationen. Danach führt die Kapitalertragsteuer zu einer wohlfahrtsmindernden Zusatzlast (deadweight loss) im Gegenwert von 10 Mrd. €, während die Zusatzlast einer permanenten Inflationsrate von 1,5% p.a. bei 33 Mrd. € liegt. Die seit 2010 von der EZB verfolgte krisenbedingte Niedrigzinspolitik ist für Deutschland mit einer Zusatzlast von 39 Mrd. € pro Jahr (1,4% des BIP) verbunden. Damit überschreiten bereits jetzt die kumulierten Wohlfahrtseinbußen in Deutschland die Primäreffekte der Krise, deren Folgen die EZB mit der extremen Niedrigzinspolitik zu bekämpfen versucht.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Rösl & Karl-Heinz Tödter, 2015. "Zins- und Wohlfahrtseffekte extremer Niedrigzinspolitik für die Sparer in Deutschland," ROME Working Papers 201501, ROME Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial repression; interest rate policy; EZB; savings losses; welfare; OLGmodel; intertemporal distortions; deadweight loss; retirement consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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