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Causality in empirical analyses with emphasis on asymmetric information and risk management

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  • Georges Dionne

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

Abstract

We discuss the difficult question of measuring causality effects in empirical analyses, with applications to asymmetric information and risk management. It is now well documented in the economic literature that policy analysis must be causal. Hence, the measurement of its effects must also be causal. After having presented the main frameworks for causality analysis, including instrumental variable, difference-in-differences, and generalized method of moments, we analyze the following questions: Does risk management affect firm value and risk? Do we face a moral hazard problem in the insurance data? How can we separate moral hazard from adverse selection and asymmetric learning? Is liquidity creation a causal factor for reinsurance demand? We show that residual information problems are often present in different markets, while risk management may increase firm value when appropriate methodologies are applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Dionne, 2023. "Causality in empirical analyses with emphasis on asymmetric information and risk management," Working Papers 23-4, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2023_004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dionne, Georges & Ouederni, Karima, 2011. "Corporate risk management and dividend signaling theory," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 188-195.
    2. Georges Dionne & Ying Liu, 2021. "Effects of Insurance Incentives on Road Safety: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(2), pages 453-477, April.
    3. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    4. Hyojoung Kim & Doyoung Kim & Subin Im & James W. Hardin, 2009. "Evidence of Asymmetric Information in the Automobile Insurance Market: Dichotomous Versus Multinomial Measurement of Insurance Coverage," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 343-366, June.
    5. John R. Graham & Daniel A. Rogers, 2002. "Do Firms Hedge in Response to Tax Incentives?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 815-839, April.
    6. Alois Geyer & Daniela Kremslehner & Alexander Muermann, 2020. "Asymmetric Information in Automobile Insurance: Evidence From Driving Behavior," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(4), pages 969-995, December.
    7. Yong-Woo Lee, 2013. "Testing for the Presence of Moral Hazard Using the Regulatory Reform in the Car Insurance Market: Case of Korea," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 414-429, September.
    8. Froot, Kenneth A. & Scharfstein, David S. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2008. "Risk management: coordinating corporate investment and financing policies," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 48(1), January.
    9. John R. Graham & Clifford W. Smith, 1999. "Tax Incentives to Hedge," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2241-2262, December.
    10. Jun‐Koo Kang & Jin‐Mo Kim, 2008. "The Geography of Block Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2817-2858, December.
    11. Alberto Abadie & Jérémy L’Hour, 2021. "A Penalized Synthetic Control Estimator for Disaggregated Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1817-1834, October.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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