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Canada’s “COVID-19 Referendum”: Voting in the Early Federal Election of 2021

Author

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  • Joseph Marchand

    (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)

  • Yuhan Wang

    (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Canada’s 2021 federal election was called early, less than two years after its previous election, and during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was the earliest called election in the fixed date era and additionally served as an unofficial referendum of the incumbent party’s pandemic response. How might that have influenced voting? Harmonizing electoral districts of official voting data to more aggregate health regions of COVID data, this is the first study to examine COVID severity and voting outcomes for Canada. Overall, local COVID severity was negatively associated with voter turnout in the 2021 election. Local COVID severity was also positively associated with Liberal, NDP, and Green party vote shares and negatively associated with Conservative, BQ, and People’s party vote shares. Based on these signed party associations with COVID severity, local voter turnout was slightly higher when moving from COVID-induced party domination toward more COVID-reduced party domination, and from Liberal to Conservative.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Marchand & Yuhan Wang, 2024. "Canada’s “COVID-19 Referendum”: Voting in the Early Federal Election of 2021," Working Papers 2024-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:albaec:2024_011
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    File URL: https://sites.ualberta.ca/~econwps/2024/wp2024-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Shianne Combden & Anita Forward & Atanu Sarkar, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic responses of Canada and United States in first 6 months: A comparative analysis," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 50-65, January.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • K16 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Election Law

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