Performance of Analyst's Earnings Forecasting - Evidence from the Finnish Emerging Markets 1987-2005
Financial analysts comprise one important group of information intermediaries between firms and investors (Healy & Palepu, 2001). They have great potential to decrease information asymmetry between firms and investors, resulting in better allocation of capital. Analysts work is influenced by, among other things, the quality and quantity of information available from the target firms. Furthermore, analysts' incentives could be influenced by the employer's other affairs with the client. Our paper has three purposes : 1) to review the main research literature on analysts' activity and performance, 2) to describe the development of analysts' activity in the period 1987-2005 in a Finnish emerging market, and 3) to analyse the impact of market regulation and market cycles on analysts' performance. Performance is studied in three dimensions: forecasting accuracy, forecast bias, and forecasting efficiency. Analysts' data are based on I/B/E/S. Our analysis shows the rapid development of analysts' activity, both in terms of the number of forecasts and longer forecasting horizons. Overall, the result supports the conclusion that analysts tend to be somewhat pessimistic in their Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts. Furthermore, the corrective actions taken have been somewhat sluggish (delays in EPS revisions). However, the forecasts improved significantly in the close before the actual EPS releases (0-1 month sample). Finally, analysts were not fully taking into account prior EPS development. This further supports the view that analysts underestimate the value of prior earnings change in their current earnings forecasting.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Lönnrotinkatu 4 B, FIN-00120 HELSINKI|
Phone: +358 (0)9 609 900
Fax: +358 (0)9 601 753
Web page: http://www.etla.fi/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou-Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, 09.
- Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, 02.
- Ole-Kristian Hope, 2003. "Disclosure Practices, Enforcement of Accounting Standards, and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: An International Study," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 235-272, 05.
- Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
- Robert M. Bushman & Joseph D. Piotroski & Abbie J. Smith, 2005. "Insider Trading Restrictions and Analysts' Incentives to Follow Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 35-66, 02.
- Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, 02.
- Roger K. Loh & Mujtaba Mian, 2003. "The Quality of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5-6), pages 749-770.
- Frankel, Richard & Kothari, S.P. & Weber, Joseph, 2006. "Determinants of the informativeness of analyst research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 29-54, April.
- Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
- Michael Eames, 2002. "The Association between Trading Recommendations and Broker-Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 85-104, 03.
- Juha Kinnunen & Jyrki Niskanen & Eero Kasanen, 2000. "To whom are IAS earnings informative? Domestic versus foreign shareholders' perspectives," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 499-517.
- Chuck C Y Kwok & Solomon Tadesse, 2006.
"National culture and financial systems,"
Journal of International Business Studies,
Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 37(2), pages 227-247, March.
- Solomon Tadesse & Chuck Kwok, 2005. "National Culture and Financial Systems," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp884, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Hannu, Schadewitz, 1997. "Financial and nonfinancial information in interim reports: Determinants and implications," MPRA Paper 44292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
- Lynn Hodgkinson, 2001. "Analysts' Forecasts and the Broker Relationship," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7&8), pages 943-961.
- Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2003. "The effect of experience on security analyst underreaction," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-116, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:1160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kaija Hyvönen-Rajecki)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.