Deep-Sea Mining? Exploring Key Trade-Offs for the Energy Transition

This paper evaluates deep-sea mining (DSM) from a policy perspective in light of rising critical mineral demand. It assesses the economic, environmental, social, and governance trade-offs between DSM and terrestrial mining, highlighting unresolved questions about ecological harm, commercial viability, benefit sharing, and the long-term substitution of land-based supply. Because DSM is likely to augment rather than displace terrestrial mining, particularly in the short term, it could have important distributional consequences for mining-dependent communities and producer countries. We also examine the unsettled international governance landscape, including ongoing negotiations at the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and growing unilateral national initiatives. We argue that, given the many uncertainties, policymakers should proceed with caution when setting regulatory frameworks for and making decisions about DSM. Furthermore, prioritizing robust environmental standards, equitable distributional rules, and broader mineral strategies centered on demand reduction, recycling, and reform of terrestrial mining governance is key to ensuring a sustainable transition as DSM rules develop.