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Poverty and Employment in Timber-Dependent Counties

  • Hoffmann, Sandra

    ()

    (Resources for the Future)

  • Berek, Peter
  • Costello, Christopher
  • Fortmann, Louise

One of the most controversial aspects of federal and state policies aimed at protecting old-growth ecosystems has been the potential impact of job losses on local economies. A fundamental question for historically timber-dependent communities is whether these policies will result in local economic stagnation and enduring pockets of poverty. In this paper, we examine the long-run impact of changes in timber-related employment on other types of employment and participation in major federal poverty programs. We use monthly, multi-county time series data to estimate a vector autoregressive model of the experience of northern California counties during the 1980s and 1990s. We find that employment base multiplier effects of timber employment on other types of employment in each county are small, and state economic conditions rather than local employment conditions are the principal driver behind local poverty.

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Paper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-00-52.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2000
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Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-00-52
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  1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  2. Rebecca M. Blank, 2000. "What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?," JCPR Working Papers 18, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  3. Rebecca M. Blank, 1999. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Explaining Recent Changes in Public Assistance Caseloads," JCPR Working Papers 78, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  6. Andrew C. Krikelas, 1992. "Why regions grow: a review of research on the economic base model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 16-29.
  7. Brown, Scott J. & Coulson, N. Edward & Engle, Robert F., 1992. "On the determination of regional base and regional base multipliers," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 619-635, November.
  8. Lesage, James P. & Reed, J. David, 1989. "The dynamic relationship between export, local, and total area employment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 615-636, December.
  9. David N. Figlio & James P. Ziliak, 1999. "Welfare Reform, the Business Cycle, and the Decline in AFDC Caseloads," JCPR Working Papers 77, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  10. Rebecca M. Blank & Alan S. Blinder, 1985. "Macroeconomics, Income Distribution, and Poverty," NBER Working Papers 1567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Timothy J. Bartik, . "Who Benefits from Local Job Growth: Migrants or Original Residents?," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles tjb1993rs, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
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