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Credit Constraints, Firms' Precautionary Investment, and the Business Cycle

  • Ander Perez

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

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    This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of firms' precautionary real investment behavior in response to the anticipation of future financing constraints. Firms increase their demand for liquid and safe but low-return investments in anticipation of future borrowing constraints in order to decrease the probability of having to forego future profitable investment opportunities. I show in a calibrated model that this behavior is at the source of a novel and powerful amplification channel of macroeconomic shocks. Furthermore, it can account for the observed business cycle patterns of the aggregate and firm-level composition of real investment, a set of observations which is at odds with the existing models studying the macroeconomic implications of financial frictions, in which the expectation of future credit constraints does not directly affect firms' current actions.

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    File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2010/paper_1004.pdf
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    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 1004.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:1004
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
    Fax: 1-314-444-8731
    Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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