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Structural Shocks and Political Participation in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Chugunova

    (MPI-IC)

  • Klaus Keller

    (MPI-IC)

  • Sampsa Samila

    (IESE Business School)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the large structural shocks -- automation and import competition -- on voter turnout during US federal elections from 2000 to 2016. Although the negative income effect of both shocks is comparable, we find that political participation decreases significantly in counties more exposed to industrial robots. In contrast, the exposure to rising import competition does not reduce voter turnout. A survey experiment reveals that divergent beliefs about the effectiveness of government intervention drive this contrast. Our study highlights the role of beliefs in the political economy of technological change.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Chugunova & Klaus Keller & Sampsa Samila, 2023. "Structural Shocks and Political Participation in the US," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 418, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:418
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    2. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    3. Amrita Dhillon & Susana Peralta, 2002. "Economic Theories Of Voter Turnout," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages 332-352, June.
    4. Massimo Anelli & Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2019. "We Were the Robots: Automation and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 7758, CESifo.
    5. David Autor, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Technological Change: From Unbridled Enthusiasm to Qualified Optimism to Vast Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 30074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Rafael Di Tella & Dani Rodrik, 2020. "Labour Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 1008-1030.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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